MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT SANTA ANITA for SUNDAY
Per
strategy below, all exactas and daily doubles are recommended $8 investments (2
x 2 x $2). Trifectas are recommended only in MPW or BP races and are $12
investments (2 x 4 x 4 x $2). Pick Three’s are $16 investments (2 x 2 x 2
x $2). Pick Four’s are $32 investments (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x $2).
WAGERING
STRATEGY TO GET
THE MOST OUT
OF MY ANALYSIS
► COMPUTER PREDICTED
CLOSE FINISHES (within .50 of top horse)
My computer program is very
advanced and complex. It actually performs thousands of calculations for
every horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay,
non-linear functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond
what most handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked
order of finish, a fair odds line so you can compare the fair odds assigned by
my computer program to the actual track odds and a profitable betting strategy
derived from years of data research.
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to my top
horse.
► PLAYING DAILY
DOUBLES, PICK THREES, PICK FOURS
Use my top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles, Pick Threes and Pick Fours. If contention runs
deep and the third and fourth ranked horses are within .50 of the top horse,
they also should be considered, especially if they are good prices comparing my
fair odds to the morning line. Of course, you can use my Best Plays as
possible singles or on extra tickets.
► PLAYING EXACTAS
AND TRIFECTAS
Exacta strategy is to use the
top two ranked horses in every race together and use the third ranked horse
underneath.....four exacta combinations in all. Trifecta strategy is to
play only best play races using the top two for first and the top four for
second and third.....a $12 investment.
► OVERLAYS COMPARED
TO FAIR ODDS
Don’t forget to look for big
overlays comparing the actual track closing odds to the computer-generated fair
odds line.....particularly horses that are double overlays. Don’t
hesitate to consider them even if they are not ranked in the top two.
Through artificial
intelligence, my computer program is constantly learning and my win percentage
continues to rise slowly as more and more data is being accumulated and
researched.
This is a short
report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average
of the horse's
last four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top
horse.
BEST VALUE BET in Race 6:
6 REALITY RIDE by 1.8 lengths
Second BEST VALUE BET in Race 9:
8 CONCERTO'S THUNDER by 1.0 lengths
Most Probable Winner in Race 7:
6 FINE AND RARE by 3.3 lengths
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 ACHAK (IRE)
5-2 72 83
0.00
1 LEASE OF LIFE
4-1 72 86
1.00
3 GALLANT GENT
7-1 68 92
1.95
8 ONE UNION
8-1 85 99
2.11
5 GALLETA MONSTRUO 8-1
75 87
2.30
Commentary
ACHAK (IRE) The recent 5F workout looks great.
LEASE OF LIFE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Three consecutive good finishes.
GALLANT GENT Best speed at this distance and surface.
ONE UNION Modest pace advantage. Big back speed advantage.
GALLETA MONSTRUO Slight speed advantage. No works or races within three
weeks could be trouble. Four consecutive decreases in speed
rating!!
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 HAMEILDAEME (GB) 7-2
80 84
0.00
3 BELLA ROJA
9-2 79 92
0.65
2 VAN BRIT
5-1 79 86
0.89
6 PRYTANIA
6-1 76 82
1.04
1 ROLLERSKATES
6-1 75 83
1.16
Commentary
HAMEILDAEME (GB) Slight pace advantage. Two consecutive
decreases in speed rating.
BELLA ROJA Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good
finishes.
VAN BRIT Slight speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great.
PRYTANIA You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
ROLLERSKATES Three consecutive good finishes.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 TOKUBETSU
2-1 75 90
0.00
5 MEADOW ROAD
9-2 78 101
1.92
2 JACK REACHER
7-1 77 99
2.62
3 DUBBER
10-1 76 100
3.47
7 LORD VRONSKY
10-1 no starts 3.68
Commentary
TOKUBETSU Back speed advantage. Three consecutive good
finishes. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
MEADOW ROAD Pace advantage. Speed advantage. The recent 5F workout
looks
great.
JACK REACHER The recent 5F workout looks great. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 UNCLE GREG
5-2 66 83
0.00
3 BIG BAD BOO
4-1 72 95
0.79
6 REQUISITION
6-1 77 99
1.54
4 CAFFEINE HIGH
8-1 69 95
2.27
1 JEFFREY'S GROOVE 10-1
82 96 2.84
Commentary
UNCLE GREG Modest speed advantage. Big back speed advantage.
Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
BIG BAD BOO Huge class drop should help.
REQUISITION Three consecutive good finishes.
CAFFEINE HIGH Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
JEFFREY'S GROOVE Modest pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed
advantage.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 NISUS
7-2 74 97
0.00
9 CABO SAN LUCAS
4-1 75 98
0.18
6 SMOKIN BOMB
7-1 70 95
1.26
10 NATURALISTE
7-1 76 98
1.32
5 GREENSPAN
9-1 78 94
1.88
Commentary
NISUS Speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed
rating.
CABO SAN LUCAS Looks to have an early speed advantage.
SMOKIN BOMB Back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the
workouts.
GREENSPAN Pace advantage. Huge class drop should help. Two
consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 REALITY RIDE
5-2 80 99
0.00
3 ONE NATION
6-1 76 86
1.80
5 MAGIC BEAM
7-1 74 84
2.07
1 RIGHTFUL IMAGE
8-1 73 84
2.36
2 SEEKING SOLACE
9-1 74 85
2.64
Commentary
REALITY RIDE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode
well and this horse has it. Three consecutive good
finishes. Looks to
have an early speed advantage.
ONE NATION Modest back speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in
last.
MAGIC BEAM Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
RIGHTFUL IMAGE Speed improved in last outing.
SEEKING SOLACE A well worked out horse. Bid but hung in last.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 FINE AND RARE
7-5 77 99
0.00
5 NUCLEAR MISSILE 6-1
69 94
3.27
10 FAITHFUL SECRET 6-1
71 85
3.37
3 HURRICANE HARBOR 12-1
56 92 4.92
1 ONEBADBOY
18-1 no starts
5.65
Commentary
FINE AND RARE Pace advantage. Back speed advantage. Taxing
stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an early
speed
advantage.
NUCLEAR MISSILE The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Huge
class drop should help.
FAITHFUL SECRET Speed advantage.
HURRICANE HARBOR Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
11 SAMMARTINO
9-2 77 92
0.00
7 VAUNDELL
5-1 83 96
0.24
2 FORMAT V.
7-1 79 95
0.86
8 DISTANT SKY
7-1 74 91
0.89
9 TAMARACK SMARTY 7-1
80 89
0.90
Commentary
SAMMARTINO Very impressive workouts.
VAUNDELL Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two consecutive
decreases in speed rating.
FORMAT V. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
DISTANT SKY Speed improved in last outing.
TAMARACK SMARTY Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 CONCERTO'S THUNDER 2-1
73 93 0.00
7 STREETS OF HEAVEN 7-2
67 84 1.03
1 BELO PURSE (BRZ) 6-1
63 91
2.20
5 MARK OF A WARRIOR 8-1
73 98 2.55
4 RAINGEAR
22-1 76 96
4.47
Commentary
CONCERTO'S THUNDER Slight speed advantage. Modest back speed
advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
STREETS OF HEAVEN Three consecutive good finishes.
MARK OF A WARRIOR Very impressive workouts.
RAINGEAR Big pace advantage. Workouts that are five furlongs or longer
bode well and this horse has it.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 QUINDICI MAN
9-2 80 86
0.00
3 DAHOUD (NZ)
9-2 85 92
0.10
10 JUNIPER PASS
5-1 84 79
0.32
2 HAIMISH HY
5-1 81 86
0.42
8 CELTIC NEW YEAR 10-1
82 88 1.82
4 POWER SERIES
18-1 77 0
2.68
6 IMPONENTE PURSE (BRZ) 18-1
85 83 2.70
7 ROMP (ARG)
23-1 82 73
3.16
9 FALCON ROCK (IRE) 30-1
81 0 3.49
Commentary
QUINDICI MAN Slight speed advantage. I like the workouts.
Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class drop should
help.
DAHOUD (NZ) Long recent workout is a good sign. Taxing stretch drive in
last, a good sign. Three consecutive good finishes.
Looks to have an
early speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
JUNIPER PASS Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Showed surprise
early speed in last. Two consecutive improvements in speed
rating.
HAIMISH HY Long recent workout is a good sign.
CELTIC NEW YEAR A well worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes.
Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive
improvements in speed
rating.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT SANTA ANITA for
SATURDAY
Per
strategy below, all exactas and daily doubles are recommended $8 investments (2
x 2 x $2). Trifectas are recommended only in MPW or BP races and are $12 investments
(2 x 4 x 4 x $2). Pick Three’s are $16 investments (2 x 2 x 2 x
$2). Pick Four’s are $32 investments (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x $2).
WAGERING
STRATEGY TO GET
THE MOST OUT
OF MY ANALYSIS
► COMPUTER PREDICTED
CLOSE FINISHES (within .50 of top horse)
My computer program is very
advanced and complex. It actually performs thousands of calculations for
every horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay,
non-linear functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what
most handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked
order of finish, a fair odds line so you can compare the fair odds assigned by
my computer program to the actual track odds and a profitable betting strategy
derived from years of data research.
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to my top
horse.
► PLAYING DAILY
DOUBLES, PICK THREES, PICK FOURS
Use my top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles, Pick Threes and Pick Fours. If contention runs
deep and the third and fourth ranked horses are within .50 of the top horse,
they also should be considered, especially if they are good prices comparing my
fair odds to the morning line. Of course, you can use my Best Plays as
possible singles or on extra tickets.
► PLAYING EXACTAS
AND TRIFECTAS
Exacta strategy is to use the
top two ranked horses in every race together and use the third ranked horse
underneath.....four exacta combinations in all. Trifecta strategy is to
play only best play races using the top two for first and the top four for
second and third.....a $12 investment.
► OVERLAYS COMPARED
TO FAIR ODDS
Don’t forget to look for big
overlays comparing the actual track closing odds to the computer-generated fair
odds line.....particularly horses that are double overlays. Don’t
hesitate to consider them even if they are not ranked in the top two.
Through artificial
intelligence, my computer program is constantly learning and my win percentage
continues to rise slowly as more and more data is being accumulated and
researched.
This is a short
report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average
of the horse's
last four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top
horse.
BEST VALUE BET in Race 1:
4 CHEROKEE HEAVEN by 1.9 lengths
Second BEST VALUE BET in Race 3:
6 COMPARI by 1.2 lengths
Most Probable Winner in Race 2:
1 STRAY CAT by 2.5 lengths
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 CHEROKEE HEAVEN 2-1
81 95
0.00
5 DANCE WITH GABLE 5-1
86 101
1.86
2 QUIETLY MINE
7-1 78 95
2.40
1 EL SCORPIO
9-1 79 100
2.77
7 MUNY
9-1 71
88 2.93
Commentary
CHEROKEE HEAVEN Slight speed advantage. Slight back speed
advantage. A well worked out horse. Three consecutive
good finishes.
DANCE WITH GABLE Modest pace advantage. The recent 5F workout looks
great.
QUIETLY MINE Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
EL SCORPIO Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Looks to have an
early speed advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed
rating.
MUNY The long workout makes me feel good about this one. Three
consecutive good finishes.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 STRAY CAT
7-5 72 98
0.00
3 SMOKENOMORE
9-2 73 89
2.50
6 CLUE ME IN
7-1 65 86
3.26
2 IT'S SUPERMAN
7-1 71 95
3.47
5 QUINTONS FLASH
13-1 71 90
4.51
Commentary
STRAY CAT Slight speed advantage. Very impressive workouts.
Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
SMOKENOMORE Best speed at this distance and surface.
CLUE ME IN Highest earnings per start lifetime.
IT'S SUPERMAN Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
QUINTONS FLASH Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 COMPARI
9-5 77 95
0.00
3 REGALLY READY
7-2 85 100
1.16
4 GALLANT SON
6-1 80 96
2.06
2 CAMP VICTORY
7-1 79 96
2.51
1 SUPREME SUMMIT
10-1 75 90
3.35
5 VICTORY PETE
50-1 78 97
5.90
Commentary
COMPARI Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well
and this horse has it. Huge class drop should help.
REGALLY READY Big pace advantage. Big speed advantage. Three
consecutive
good finishes. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
GALLANT SON I like the workouts. Three consecutive improvements in speed
rating!
CAMP VICTORY The recent 5F workout looks great. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
SUPREME SUMMIT Slight back speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good
sign. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 FREE RANGE
5-2 75 92
0.00
2 ARTUYA
5-2 73 98
0.03
7 ORIENTATIOUS
8-1 no starts
2.49
3 AMERICAN LADY
10-1 no starts 3.15
6 DISTORSIONADA
10-1 no starts 3.27
Commentary
FREE RANGE Pace advantage. Back speed advantage. Long recent
workout is a good sign. Looks to have an early speed
advantage.
ARTUYA Speed advantage.
ORIENTATIOUS A well worked out horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 FREQUENT FAME
7-2 74 95
0.00
2 HOT CITIZEN
7-2 72 89
0.17
4 MARRYMEONEMORETIME 6-1
72 96 1.05
1 NOTHING TO FEAR 8-1
68 89 1.53
5 SIBERIAN HEART
8-1 72 86
1.73
Commentary
FREQUENT FAME Slight speed advantage. Modest back speed
advantage.
HOT CITIZEN Highest earnings per start.
MARRYMEONEMORETIME Three consecutive good finishes. Two consecutive
decreases in speed rating.
NOTHING TO FEAR The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
SIBERIAN HEART Highest average purse value.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 WHOOPSIE
5-2 70 95
0.00
3 GO SOPHIA
4-1 72 97
1.28
5 SHE'S ALL YOURS 8-1
69 93
2.67
1 R C MAGIC AMY
9-1 no starts
2.93
10 A GOLDEN JET
11-1 71 93
3.58
Commentary
WHOOPSIE Was closer to the lead in last.
GO SOPHIA Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed
advantage. Looks
to have an early speed advantage.
SHE'S ALL YOURS No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed
in last.
A GOLDEN JET Highest average purse value.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 VERY FAIR
7-2 85 94
0.00
3 CARDIFF GIANT
4-1 84 99
0.32
8 CALIFORNIA SOLDIER 6-1
83 88 1.01
7 VIA VERDE
6-1 80 99
1.25
9 CAHILL COUNTRY
11-1 84 91
2.41
Commentary
VERY FAIR Modest pace advantage. Slight back speed advantage.
Three consecutive good finishes.
CARDIFF GIANT Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this
horse has it.
CALIFORNIA SOLDIER Slight speed advantage.
VIA VERDE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
CAHILL COUNTRY Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 ITALIAN RULES
7-2 71 97
0.00
2 LUNADA BAY
7-2 76 101
0.09
1 KAJIWARA
5-1 80 101
0.85
4 PRIVILAGED
7-1 84 107
1.44
5 EUROGLIDE
10-1 79 93
2.16
Commentary
ITALIAN RULES Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
Three consecutive good finishes.
LUNADA BAY Long recent workout is a good sign. Looks to have an early
speed advantage.
KAJIWARA Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive
good finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
PRIVILAGED Big pace advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign.
Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
EUROGLIDE Big speed advantage. Modest back speed advantage. A well
worked out horse. Three consecutive good finishes.
Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 COZI ROSIE
5-2 79 87
0.00
2 MALIBU PIER
7-2 87 90
0.71
6 TURNING TOP (IRE) 4-1
85 84 1.03
4 ANDINA (IRE)
8-1 77 78
2.39
3 CALLE VISTA
9-1 79 82
2.54
5 RESTLESS SOUL (GB) 22-1
77 78 4.21
Commentary
COZI ROSIE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well
and this horse has it. Three consecutive good finishes.
MALIBU PIER Modest pace advantage. Slight speed advantage. You
couldn't
ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing stretch drive
in last, a good
sign. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
TURNING TOP (IRE) You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three
consecutive good finishes.
ANDINA (IRE) You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three
consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
CALLE VISTA Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Huge class raise will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 JADE'S SONG
7-2 72 87
0.00
7 BENICIA BEAUTY
7-2 74 93
0.25
10 EASY ON MY HEART 9-2
74 92
0.76
1 VUMBURA
11-1 no starts
2.56
6 SWEET CONSOLIDATOR 13-1
73 94 2.87
Commentary
JADE'S SONG Class drop should help.
BENICIA BEAUTY Speed advantage.
EASY ON MY HEART Speed improved in last outing.
SWEET CONSOLIDATOR Back speed advantage. No works or races within three
weeks could be trouble. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Two
consecutive decreases in speed rating.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT SANTA ANITA for FRIDAY
Per
strategy below, all exactas and daily doubles are recommended $8 investments (2
x 2 x $2). Trifectas are recommended only in MPW or BP races and are $12
investments (2 x 4 x 4 x $2). Pick Three’s are $16 investments (2 x 2 x 2
x $2). Pick Four’s are $32 investments (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x $2).
WAGERING
STRATEGY TO GET
THE MOST OUT
OF MY ANALYSIS
► COMPUTER PREDICTED
CLOSE FINISHES (within .50 of top horse)
My computer program is very
advanced and complex. It actually performs thousands of calculations for
every horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay,
non-linear functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond
what most handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked
order of finish, a fair odds line so you can compare the fair odds assigned by
my computer program to the actual track odds and a profitable betting strategy
derived from years of data research.
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to my top horse.
► PLAYING DAILY
DOUBLES, PICK THREES, PICK FOURS
Use my top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles, Pick Threes and Pick Fours. If contention runs
deep and the third and fourth ranked horses are within .50 of the top horse,
they also should be considered, especially if they are good prices comparing my
fair odds to the morning line. Of course, you can use my Best Plays as
possible singles or on extra tickets.
► PLAYING EXACTAS
AND TRIFECTAS
Exacta strategy is to use the
top two ranked horses in every race together and use the third ranked horse
underneath.....four exacta combinations in all. Trifecta strategy is to
play only best play races using the top two for first and the top four for
second and third.....a $12 investment.
► OVERLAYS COMPARED
TO FAIR ODDS
Don’t forget to look for big
overlays comparing the actual track closing odds to the computer-generated fair
odds line.....particularly horses that are double overlays. Don’t
hesitate to consider them even if they are not ranked in the top two.
Through artificial
intelligence, my computer program is constantly learning and my win percentage
continues to rise slowly as more and more data is being accumulated and
researched.
This is a short
report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average
of the horse's
last four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top
horse.
BEST VALUE BET in Race 1:
2 LUCKARACK by 0.7 lengths
Second BEST VALUE BET in Race 4:
2 ANGELS' SHARE by 0.6 lengths
Most Probable Winner in Race 3:
1 TASHZARA (IRE) by 4.9 lengths
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 LUCKARACK
5-2 63 83
0.00
5 MONTELLANO
7-2 77 97
0.70
4 CHINESE PRAISE
4-1 72 84
0.96
3 FIRST STRIKE
9-2 73 87
1.22
1 LIME ROCK REVENGE 20-1
74 86 4.23
Commentary
LUCKARACK Highest earnings per start.
MONTELLANO Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Big back
speed
advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
Three consecutive
good finishes. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Four consecutive
improvements in speed rating!!
CHINESE PRAISE Long recent workout is a good sign. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
FIRST STRIKE Huge class raise will be hard.
LIME ROCK REVENGE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Huge
class raise will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 WICKED TRIP
7-2 71 89
0.00
5 SEXY MELODY
7-2 64 84
0.01
3 DANCING TIGER
7-2 70 85
0.18
1 ONE GAME DAME
7-1 72 92
1.32
7 GIVEITUPFORTHELADY (GB) 8-1
75 88 1.59
Commentary
WICKED TRIP Looks to have an early speed advantage.
SEXY MELODY Modest back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last.
DANCING TIGER Modest speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as
an extra race. Huge class drop should help.
ONE GAME DAME You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
GIVEITUPFORTHELADY (GB) Big pace advantage. Huge class drop should help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 TASHZARA (IRE)
4-5 75 86
0.00
4 MUTUALLY BENEFIT 9-2
76 87
4.88
5 SO SHE DANCES 16-1
77 83 7.64
3 LAST STING
16-1 70 77
8.08
6 HALEIGH'S MOMENT 23-1
76 85 8.77
Commentary
TASHZARA (IRE) Speed advantage. Back speed advantage.
Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this
horse has it.
Three consecutive good finishes.
MUTUALLY BENEFIT Bid but hung in last. Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
LAST STING A well worked out horse. Huge class raise will be hard.
HALEIGH'S MOMENT The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 ANGELS' SHARE
5-2 70 90
0.00
3 FAIRWAY ROAD
7-2 83 96
0.64
6 RIVER GLOW
5-1 79 98
1.30
5 CHURCH AVENUE
6-1 72 93
1.73
1 FLASHY TRAVELER 12-1
71 95 3.20
Commentary
ANGELS' SHARE Highest earnings per start.
FAIRWAY ROAD Big pace advantage. Very impressive workouts.
RIVER GLOW Big back speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Huge class drop should help.
CHURCH AVENUE Slight speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
FLASHY TRAVELER Class drop should help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 BLUE GRASS MUSIC 3-1
78 92
0.00
4 REDDY GO JAYLO
4-1 73 83
0.63
8 ONE BAD ROMANCE 9-2
73 94
0.90
2 TEAM BUILDER
7-1 75 92
1.68
3 SHE'SAWONTONTOMATO 12-1
70 87 2.95
Commentary
BLUE GRASS MUSIC Slight speed advantage. Bid but hung in last.
REDDY GO JAYLO Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
ONE BAD ROMANCE Very impressive workouts. Three consecutive good
finishes. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
TEAM BUILDER Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this
horse has it.
SHE'SAWONTONTOMATO I like the workouts.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 MENSA HEAT
2-1 74 97
0.00
4 WESTERN SMOKE
9-2 80 97
1.89
5 LONE JUSTICE
6-1 81 97
2.17
2 NO GRANDE
6-1 80 96
2.35
6 DAVE'S PACEMAKER 7-1
73 98
2.69
Commentary
MENSA HEAT Slight speed advantage. Showed surprise early
speed in last. Three consecutive good finishes. Three
consecutive
improvements in speed rating!
WESTERN SMOKE Long recent workout is a good sign. Looks to have an early
speed advantage.
LONE JUSTICE Slight pace advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign.
NO GRANDE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
DAVE'S PACEMAKER A well worked out horse. Showed surprise early speed in
last.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 UP IN TIME (GB) 7-2
73 82
0.00
5 TERODA
4-1 75 93
0.06
1 RUMOR
9-2 71 94
0.35
2 FIFTH AVE (GB)
6-1 46 0
0.80
3 FORTY PACES 7-1
76 97
1.13
Commentary
UP IN TIME (GB) Big back speed advantage. The recent 5F
workout looks great.
TERODA Best speed at this distance and surface.
RUMOR Slight speed advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
FIFTH AVE (GB) The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class raise will
be hard.
FORTY PACES Modest pace advantage. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good
sign. Showed surprise early speed in last. Three
consecutive good
finishes.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 COASTAL CATHY
3-2 76 95
0.00
1 WILD CAT LORE
4-1 68 96
2.00
3 NIP OF GOLD
6-1 61 89
2.81
8 GREAT BERNARDINE 9-1
68 91
3.74
7 GOLDEN TRANQUILITY 12-1
no starts 4.49
Commentary
COASTAL CATHY Pace advantage. Speed advantage.
WILD CAT LORE Highest average purse value.
GREAT BERNARDINE Back speed advantage.
GOLDEN TRANQUILITY Workout within three days helps.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT SANTA ANITA for
THURSDAY
Per
strategy below, all exactas and daily doubles are recommended $8 investments (2
x 2 x $2). Trifectas are recommended only in
MPW or BP races and are $12 investments (2 x 4 x 4 x $2). Pick Three’s
are $16 investments (2 x 2 x 2 x $2). Pick Four’s are $32 investments (2
x 2 x 2 x 2 x $2).
WAGERING
STRATEGY TO GET
THE MOST OUT
OF MY ANALYSIS
► COMPUTER PREDICTED
CLOSE FINISHES (within .50 of top horse)
My computer program is very
advanced and complex. It actually performs thousands of calculations for
every horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay,
non-linear functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what
most handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked
order of finish, a fair odds line so you can compare the fair odds assigned by
my computer program to the actual track odds and a profitable betting strategy
derived from years of data research.
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to my top
horse.
► PLAYING DAILY
DOUBLES, PICK THREES, PICK FOURS
Use my top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles, Pick Threes and Pick Fours. If contention runs
deep and the third and fourth ranked horses are within .50 of the top horse,
they also should be considered, especially if they are good prices comparing my
fair odds to the morning line. Of course, you can use my Best Plays as
possible singles or on extra tickets.
► PLAYING EXACTAS
AND TRIFECTAS
Exacta strategy is to use the
top two ranked horses in every race together and use the third ranked horse
underneath.....four exacta combinations in all. Trifecta
strategy is to play only best play races using the top two for first and the
top four for second and third.....a $12 investment.
► OVERLAYS COMPARED
TO FAIR ODDS
Don’t forget to look for big
overlays comparing the actual track closing odds to the computer-generated fair
odds line.....particularly horses that are double overlays. Don’t
hesitate to consider them even if they are not ranked in the top two.
Through artificial
intelligence, my computer program is constantly learning and my win percentage
continues to rise slowly as more and more data is being accumulated and
researched.
This is a short
report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100%
odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four
furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average
of the horse's last four Equibase
® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top
horse.
BEST
VALUE BET in Race 6:
5 CANDYS GIRL (GB)by 0.9
lengths
Second BEST VALUE BET in Race 3:
4 ROCK SOLID KINGby 0.2
lengths
Most Probable Winner in Race 5:
1 DELUXE BUSby 1.8 lengths
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 JOCA QUEEN
5-2 no starts
0.00
7 REAL DREAM
9-2 no starts
1.22
9 COMPASS ROCK
10-1 no starts 2.83
3 LINDA T RULES
11-1 no starts 3.23
10 NOLARUNINFOR JAYCI 12-1
no starts 3.38
Commentary
JOCA QUEEN Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
COMPASS ROCK Not enough workouts for a first time starter.
LINDA T RULES Not enough workouts for a
first time starter.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 PARK TIME LUCK
5-2 76 94
0.00
1 ONEFUNSONOFAGUN 3-1
74 102
0.42
4 ALL THE LOVE
4-1 74 100
1.02
2 ULTRA AWESOME
8-1 71 95
2.53
3 MIDNIGHT RAGE
18-1 82 103
4.07
Commentary
PARK TIME LUCK Modest speed advantage. No works or races
within three weeks could be trouble. Huge class drop should
help.
ONEFUNSONOFAGUN Modest back speed advantage. Three
consecutive good
finishes. ALL THE LOVE Three consecutive good finishes.
ULTRA AWESOME The recent 5F workout looks great.
Taxing stretch drive in
last, a good sign.
MIDNIGHT RAGE Big pace advantage.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 ROCK SOLID KING 5-2
74 76
0.00
5 MR. SATURDAYNIGHT 5-2
72 89 0.21
3 SKY THRILL
9-2 82 95
1.38
6 MANOFGOLD
7-1 68 84
2.12
1 GOLDEN AUGUSTO
34-1 76 89
5.09
Commentary
ROCK SOLID KING Long recent workout is a good sign. Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating.
MR. SATURDAYNIGHT Slight speed advantage. Modest back
speed advantage.
You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. SKY THRILL Huge pace advantage.Looks to have an early speed advantage.
MANOFGOLD Three consecutive good finishes.
GOLDEN AUGUSTO Huge class drop should help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 LEANDROS (FR)
5-2 78 95
0.00
6 GET FUNKY
3-1 81 99
0.50
1 TRUMPET PLAYER JAY 9-2
77 96 1.07
2 MAJESTIC DIAMOND (NZ) 10-1
77 94 2.78
4 YES IT'S A CAT
11-1 68 88
3.05
Commentary
LEANDROS (FR) Showed surprise early speed in last.
GET FUNKY Modest pace advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great.
TRUMPET PLAYER JAY Looks to have an early speed advantage. Three
consecutive decreases in speed rating! MAJESTIC DIAMOND (NZ) Slight speed advantage.
Showed surprise early speed
in last. Two moves in last race.
YES IT'S A CAT Long workout is almost as good as an
extra race.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 DELUXE BUS
2-1 64 81
0.00
4 TRASTEVERE
9-2 67 81
1.76
6 DEPTH
5-1 65 90
2.03
3 FREE FROM MY EX 6-1
76 99
2.22
5 WON'T STOP DANCIN' 10-1
73 87 3.71
Commentary
DELUXE BUS Back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
TRASTEVERE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
DEPTH Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has it. FREE FROM MY EX Pace advantage. Speed
advantage. Looks to have an early
speed advantage.
WON'T STOP DANCIN' A well worked out horse. Bid but hung in last.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 CANDYS GIRL (GB) 3-1
77 96
0.00
10 RINGMISTRESS
9-2 74 92
0.89
8 DUDA TEN
6-1 74 91
1.42
3 HIGHLY COMPOSED (GB) 6-1
71 79 1.72
2 LYRICAL
13-1 59 89
3.25
Commentary
CANDYS GIRL (GB) Pace advantage. Back speed advantage. The
long workout makes me feel good about this one. Showed
surprise early
speed in last.
RINGMISTRESS Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. DUDA TEN Very impressive workouts. HIGHLY COMPOSED (GB) Speed advantage.
LYRICAL Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 UH OH BANGO
2-1 79 97
0.00
1 LUCKY PRIMO
3-1 83 100
0.50
4 PREAMBLE
7-2 77 97
0.82
2 YANKEE STATION
13-1 81 94
3.71
5 ADVICE
14-1 75 76
3.84
Commentary
UH OH BANGO Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive
good
finishes. LUCKY PRIMO Modest pace advantage.Very impressive workouts.Three
consecutive good finishes.Looks
to have an early speed advantage.Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating. PREAMBLE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
YANKEE STATION Modest back speed advantage. Workouts that are five
furlongs or longer bode well and this horse has
it.
ADVICE I like the workouts. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 TIZ O' GOLD
3-1 70 84
0.00
4 MYSTERY BIRD
3-1 67 83
0.07
7 IMPERATRIZ
7-1 74 93
1.77
8 SOCIAL EVENT
8-1 74 90
2.19
1 LUCKY SIS
9-1 76 86
2.29
Commentary
TIZ O' GOLD Slight speed advantage. Long recent workout is a
good sign.
MYSTERY BIRD Modest back speed advantage. Long recent workout is a good
sign. IMPERATRIZ Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
SOCIAL EVENT Speed improved in last outing.
LUCKY SIS Huge class drop should help.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT SANTA ANITA for SUNDAY
Per
strategy below, all exactas and daily doubles are recommended $8 investments (2
x 2 x $2). Trifectas are recommended only in MPW or BP races and are $12
investments (2 x 4 x 4 x $2). Pick Three’s are $16 investments (2 x 2 x 2
x $2). Pick Four’s are $32 investments (2 x 2 x 2 x 2 x $2).
WAGERING
STRATEGY TO GET
THE MOST OUT
OF MY ANALYSIS
► COMPUTER PREDICTED
CLOSE FINISHES (within .50 of top horse)
My computer program is very
advanced and complex. It actually performs thousands of calculations for
every horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay,
non-linear functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond
what most handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked
order of finish, a fair odds line so you can compare the fair odds assigned by
my computer program to the actual track odds and a profitable betting strategy
derived from years of data research.
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to my top
horse.
► PLAYING DAILY
DOUBLES, PICK THREES, PICK FOURS
Use my top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles, Pick Threes and Pick Fours. If contention runs
deep and the third and fourth ranked horses are within .50 of the top horse,
they also should be considered, especially if they are good prices comparing my
fair odds to the morning line. Of course, you can use my Best Plays as
possible singles or on extra tickets.
► PLAYING EXACTAS
AND TRIFECTAS
Exacta strategy is to use the
top two ranked horses in every race together and use the third ranked horse
underneath.....four exacta combinations in all. Trifecta strategy is to
play only best play races using the top two for first and the top four for
second and third.....a $12 investment.
► OVERLAYS COMPARED
TO FAIR ODDS
Don’t forget to look for big
overlays comparing the actual track closing odds to the computer-generated fair
odds line.....particularly horses that are double overlays. Don’t
hesitate to consider them even if they are not ranked in the top two.
Through artificial
intelligence, my computer program is constantly learning and my win percentage
continues to rise slowly as more and more data is being accumulated and
researched.
This is a short
report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace Figure
The pace figure is a complex average of the horse's last
four Equibase ® pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average
of the horse's
last four Equibase ® speed ratings.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is an
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today.
However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating,
this doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example
a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't finished
better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES
There will be races in which
the order of finish is very close. All horses in races within .50 of the
top horse should be considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track
with any nice overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top
horse.
BEST VALUE BET in Race 5:
6 TRUENO by 3.3 lengths
Second BEST VALUE BET in Race 7:
8 WHOLELOTACONGRATS by 1.2 lengths
Most Probable Winner in Race 5:
6 TRUENO by 3.3 lengths
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 RUN CANDY RUN
7-2 71 90
0.00
4 CHAMPAGNE TOPPER 9-2
71 96
0.63
3 LEYVA MAN
9-2 80 88
0.69
6 WARREN'S WAREHOUSE 5-1
75 77 0.89
2 ORBACH
6-1 68 61
1.23
Commentary
RUN CANDY RUN Speed improved in last outing.
CHAMPAGNE TOPPER Looks to have an early speed advantage.
LEYVA MAN Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Modest
back
speed advantage.
WARREN'S WAREHOUSE Highest earnings per start at today's track.
ORBACH Long recent workout is a good sign. Taxing stretch drive in last,
a good sign.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 GUTSHOT STRAIGHT 7-5
56 39
0.00
3 FREE TIME
3-1 74 100
1.80
2 CADILLAC COACH
8-1 no starts
3.94
1 YOU BETTOR BEWARE 10-1
no starts 4.48
4 TALES OF TIGGER 10-1
no starts 4.54
Commentary
GUTSHOT STRAIGHT Back speed advantage. Bid but hung in last.
Looks to have an early speed advantage.
FREE TIME Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Showed surprise early
speed
in last.
TALES OF TIGGER You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 DEXTERA (GER)
8-5 76 92 0.00
3 OUR BELLINI BIKINI 5-2
71 94 0.68
5 KAHLUA MIST
6-1 66 93
2.52
6 JUST CALL'ER
16-1 68 94
4.50
4 JUSTINCREDIBLE
22-1 68 96
4.93
Commentary
DEXTERA (GER) Big pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. No
works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
OUR BELLINI BIKINI Looks to have an early speed advantage.
KAHLUA MIST Was closer to the lead in last. Taxing stretch drive in last,
a good sign. Showed surprise early speed in last.
JUST CALL'ER Showed surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good
finishes.
JUSTINCREDIBLE Four consecutive decreases in speed rating!!
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 THE HUNT IS ON
2-1 70 76
0.00
3 STATE GATHERING (GB) 4-1
51 0
1.59
4 BOULDER CREEK 5-1
77 81
1.98
7 B'S LUCKY STRIKE 6-1
77 88
2.36
6 FORWARD COMMITMENT 17-1
79 94 4.34
Commentary
THE HUNT IS ON Three consecutive good finishes.
STATE GATHERING (GB) Big speed advantage. Slight back speed
advantage.
Huge class drop should help.
BOULDER CREEK Highest earnings per start.
B'S LUCKY STRIKE Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
FORWARD COMMITMENT Modest pace advantage. Three consecutive good
finishes. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 TRUENO
1-1 73 87
0.00
7 AFLEET COWBOY
9-2 73 88
3.28
8 FULL STRENGTH
7-1 74 80
3.92
3 SOPHOMORIC VENTURE 16-1
72 88 5.78
1 SLEWS DARK KNIGHT 29-1
73 95 6.77
Commentary
TRUENO Modest speed advantage. No works or races within three
weeks could be trouble. Huge class drop should help.
AFLEET COWBOY Highest earnings per start at today's track.
FULL STRENGTH Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Was closer
to the lead in last. Huge class drop should help.
SOPHOMORIC VENTURE No works or races within three weeks could be trouble.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 ADAM SUANCES
3-1 76 95
0.00
1 HE'S A DANCE STAR 4-1
80 97 0.68
2 ITSSULTRYINTHECAPE 5-1
82 98 1.14
7 ROARING TIMES
10-1 72 90
2.50
8 WARRENS SUMMERGOLD 10-1
72 89 2.60
Commentary
ADAM SUANCES You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
HE'S A DANCE STAR Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and
this horse has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good
sign.
ITSSULTRYINTHECAPE Modest pace advantage. A well worked out horse.
Three
consecutive decreases in speed rating!
ROARING TIMES The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
WARRENS SUMMERGOLD Huge class raise will be hard. Three consecutive
decreases in speed rating!
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
8 WHOLELOTACONGRATS 3-1
75 97 0.00
5 CLASSY LION
5-1 71 99
1.20
4 STU'S GONE WILD 7-1
74 95
1.80
1 BRERETON PARK
7-1 76 96
1.90
6 BASIC STRATEGY
10-1 76 96 2.55
Commentary
WHOLELOTACONGRATS The recent 5F workout looks great.
CLASSY LION Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
STU'S GONE WILD Class drop should help.
BRERETON PARK Highest earnings per start at today's distance.
BASIC STRATEGY Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 MAJOR ART (GB)
7-2 79 83
0.00
1 JAKESAM
7-2 86 87
0.20
5 QUAIL HILL
4-1 80 88
0.36
2 SURREY STAR (IRE) 5-1
86 94 0.93
3 KING COLA
14-1 70 72
2.96
7 INSCRUTABLE
25-1 44 0
3.85
4 THE FLYING WHIZZER 46-1
79 92 4.73
Commentary
MAJOR ART (GB) Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
JAKESAM Modest back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
QUAIL HILL Very impressive workouts. Huge class drop should help.
SURREY STAR (IRE) Slight pace advantage. Huge class drop should help.
KING COLA Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Three
consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 TWOATTEN TENATTWO 5-2
74 99 0.00
1 EL GRAN MATADOR 7-1
66 92 1.94
5 JAKEY BOY
7-1 67 94
2.11
7 CUT N' DEAL
7-1 81 95
2.15
10 GAELIC GLORY
7-1 72 96
2.17
Commentary
TWOATTEN TENATTWO The recent 5F workout looks great. Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating.
EL GRAN MATADOR Modest back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks
great. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
JAKEY BOY Very impressive workouts. Three consecutive improvements in
speed rating!
CUT N' DEAL Big pace advantage. No works or races within three weeks
could be trouble. Bid but hung in last.
GAELIC GLORY Speed improved in last outing.
