MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT HOLLYWOODPARK FOR WEDNESDAY
Introduction
Mike’s sophisticated computer program is certainly one of
the most advanced and complex when it comes to ranking horses in predicted
order of finish. It actually performs thousands of calculations for every
horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay, non-linear
functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what most
handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked order of finish, a fair odds lines so you can compare the fair odds assigned
by Mike’s computer program to the actual odds, and a betting strategy.
BETTING STRATEGY
Mike’s updated betting strategy as of June, 2005 is to
use his top two horses
in the rolling Daily
Doubles and Pick Threes. Use his top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles and
Pick Threes. Of course, you can use his Best Plays
as possible singles or to
use on extra tickets. His exacta strategy is to use
his top two ranked horses
in every race together and use his third ranked
horse underneath…four
exacta combinations in all. His trifecta
strategy
is to play only his best
play races using his top two for first and his top four
for second and third…a
$12 investment…example: 1-2 w/ 1-2-3-4 w/ 1-2-3-4.
Don’t forget to look for big overlays in the closing odds
versus Mike’s computer
generated fair odds line
that you are getting…particularly horses that are
double overlays.
Don’t hesitate to consider them even if they are NOT ranked
in his top two.
EXPLANATIONS
Proficiency This is a short report on how well my selections
perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of
this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds The chance the horse will win. This is a 100%
odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace
The pace rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Trackmaster pace ratings at the four furlong
point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is my
best estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Trackmaster
speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is mybest
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this
doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the
highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would
probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
_____________________________________________________
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES:
There will be races in which the order of finish is very
close. All horses in races within .50 of the top horse should be
considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track with any nice
overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 STORMIN STORY
8-5 75 79
0.00
3 KHUN DAN
7-2 77 83
1.63
2 CALL TRANSFER
5-1 76 78
2.38
1 IN SESSION
7-1 81 94
3.02
4 QUAKER RUN
13-1 76 88
4.26
Commentary
STORMIN STORY Modest speed advantage. Modest back speed
advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign.
Showed surprise early
speed in last. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive decreases in
speed rating.
KHUN DAN Looks to have an early speed advantage. Two
consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
CALL TRANSFER You couldn't ask for much more from the
workouts. IN SESSION Big pace advantage. The recent 5F
workout looks great. Two
consecutive decreases in speed rating.
QUAKER RUN Speed improved in last outing.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 MUST BE JOKING
8-5 78 86
0.00
5 JAMES PRIOR
4-1 74 79
1.78
3 MARRY ME DOC
9-2 77 88
2.06
4 BENJY'S PRIDE
10-1 76 76
3.96
2 LUCKY NO. THIRTEEN 11-1
73 82 4.15
Commentary
MUST BE JOKING Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed
advantage. Looks to have an early speed
advantage.Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
JAMES PRIOR The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class drop should
help.
MARRY ME DOC Speed improved in last outing.
BENJY'S PRIDE Huge class drop should help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 PROUD GARRISON
5-2 75 90
0.00
5 SCOUT ABOUT
3-1 66 86
0.50
4 THUNDER AND ICE 3-1
83 93
0.68
6 STITCHIT
10-1 68 85
3.17
2 ENLIGHTENED LADY 21-1
70 83 4.38
Commentary
PROUD GARRISON Slight speed advantage. You couldn't ask for
much more from the workouts. Showed surprise early speed in
last. SCOUT ABOUT Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. THUNDER AND ICE Huge pace advantage.Slight back speed advantage.Looks
to have an early speed advantage.
STITCHIT Showed surprise early speed in last. Two
consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
ENLIGHTENED LADY Speed improved in last outing.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 LIBERIAN FREIGHTER 7-2
86 94 0.00
4 MEN'S MAGAZINE (ITY) 4-1
93 101 0.30
2 PORTO SANTO (FR) 4-1
75 86
0.35
5 EPIC POWER
7-1 88 94
1.24
1 BLACK ASTOR
7-1 85 93
1.39
Commentary
LIBERIAN FREIGHTER Slight back speed advantage. Three
consecutive good finishes.Looks
to have an early speed advantage. MEN'S MAGAZINE (ITY) Big pace advantage.
Workouts that are five furlongs
or longer bode well and this horse has
it. Three consecutive good
finishes. PORTO SANTO (FR) Two consecutive decreases in speed rating. EPIC POWER Modest speed advantage. Huge class
drop should help.
BLACK ASTOR A well worked out horse.
PN Horse Name Odds
Pace Speed BLs
7 STATELY APPEAL
9-5 71 83
0.00
3 AUNT PINK
6-1 71 86
2.37
1 TRUFFLESFROMHEAVEN 7-1
65 83 2.67
4 MISS ANZIAYAN 8-1
77 90
3.00
8 KYLIE'S WAY
14-1 64 84
4.10
Commentary
STATELY APPEAL Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
AUNT PINK Modest speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel good
about this one.
MISS ANZIAYAN Big pace advantage. Four consecutive decreases in speed
rating!!
KYLIE'S WAY Three consecutive good finishes.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 WILD APART
3-1 79 92
0.00
10 PERFECT VINTAGE 7-2
73 86
0.37
4 SISTER LUCY
9-2 79 95
0.68
2 DRAMA CAT
9-2 71 85
0.84
9 KIND LADY
18-1 74 88
3.59
Commentary
WILD APART Huge class drop should help.
PERFECT VINTAGE Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. Long workout
is
almost as good as an extra race. Bid but hung in last. SISTER LUCY Pace advantage. The recent 5F
workout looks great. Looks to
have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop
should help. DRAMA CAT Very impressive workouts.
KIND LADY Showed surprise early speed in last. Two
consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 CHRISTMAS SHIP
3-1 76 73
0.00
1 SENSATIONAL LOVE 4-1
75 79
0.96
6 KAYD KODAUN (IRE) 9-2
80 88 1.01
2 CONTENTIOUS
7-1 77 79
1.74
3 OPAL HAZE
12-1 80 82
3.11
Commentary
CHRISTMAS SHIP Three consecutive good finishes. Looks
to have
an early speed advantage. Huge class drop should
help.
SENSATIONAL LOVE Taxing stretch drive in last, a good
sign. Showed
surprise early speed in last. Two
consecutive decreases in speed rating. KAYD KODAUN (IRE) Highest earnings per start
lifetime.
CONTENTIOUS The recent 5F workout looks great. Taxing stretch drive in
last, a good sign. OPAL HAZE Slight speed advantage. No works or
races within three weeks
could be trouble.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 AXIOM
5-1 77 90
0.00
5 YES HE'S A PISTOL 7-1
73 87 0.49
4 FOR THE HOUSE
7-1 78 90
0.73
3 GREEDY WAY
8-1 71 84
0.90
8 FAMILIAR STRANGER 8-1
77 93 0.99
Commentary
AXIOM Long workout is almost as good as an extra race. Showed
surprise early speed in last. Two
consecutive improvements in speed
rating.
FOR THE HOUSE Modest speed advantage. No works
or races within three
weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch
drive in last, a good sign.Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating. GREEDY WAY Highest earnings per start at today's
track.
FAMILIAR STRANGER Modest back speed advantage. Two
consecutive decreases
in speed rating.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT HOLLYWOODPARK FOR SUNDAY
Introduction
Mike’s sophisticated computer program is certainly one of
the most advanced and complex when it comes to ranking horses in predicted
order of finish. It actually performs thousands of calculations for every
horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay, non-linear
functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what most
handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked order of finish, a fair odds
lines so you can compare the fair odds assigned by Mike’s computer program to
the actual odds, and a betting strategy.
BETTING STRATEGY
Mike’s updated betting strategy as of June, 2005 is to
use his top two horses
in the rolling Daily Doubles and Pick Threes. Use
his top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles and Pick Threes. Of course,
you can use his Best Plays
as possible singles or to use on extra tickets. His
exacta strategy is to use
his top two ranked horses in every race together and use
his third ranked
horse underneath…four exacta combinations in all.
His trifecta strategy
is to play only his best play races using his top two for
first and his top four
for second and third…a $12 investment…example: 1-2
w/ 1-2-3-4 w/ 1-2-3-4.
Don’t forget to look for big overlays in the closing odds
versus Mike’s computer
generated fair odds line that you are
getting…particularly horses that are
double overlays. Don’t hesitate to consider them
even if they are NOT ranked
in his top two.
EXPLANATIONS
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of
this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace
The pace rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Trackmaster pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is my
best estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the
horse's last four Trackmaster speed ratings. The average has different weights
for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is mybest estimate of
what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has
the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top
pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't
finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
_____________________________________________________
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES:
There will be races in which the order of finish is very
close. All horses in races within .50 of the top horse should be
considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track with any nice
overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI 9-2
76 85 0.00
5 J B WINE
5-1 78 87
0.17
1 WARREN'S KENZO
5-1 78 90
0.20
9 NO PLACE LIKE HOME 10-1
73 85 1.30
4 ISLAND RUN
10-1 70 78
1.32
Commentary
JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI Modest back speed advantage. Long recent
workout is a good sign.
J B WINE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Bid but hung
in last. WARREN'S KENZO Two consecutive improvements in speed
rating.
NO PLACE LIKE HOME Long workout is almost as good as an extra race.
ISLAND RUN You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 POCOSIN'S GAME BOY 5-2
85 97 0.00
7 RED ARROW (AUS) 4-1
46 0
1.21
3 GINOBILI
6-1 70 86
1.85
2 PREMIUM QUALITY 7-1
80 91
2.11
5 EMBRACE THE STORM 18-1
88 102 4.10
Commentary
POCOSIN'S GAME BOY Modest back speed advantage. No works or
races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing stretch
drive in last,
a good sign.
RED ARROW (AUS) A well worked out horse. Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
GINOBILI No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Taxing
stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive
decreases in speed
rating!
PREMIUM QUALITY Modest speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel
good about this one. Three consecutive good finishes.
EMBRACE THE STORM Big pace advantage. The recent 5F workout looks great.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 MAMA LULA
3-1 73 89
0.00
6 ASIAN EYES
5-1 79 88
1.12
5 PERSIAN HONEY (BRZ) 6-1
80 89 1.47
4 HARD WOMAN
8-1 72 85
2.01
1 MRS. ROCHA
10-1 73 89
2.39
Commentary
MAMA LULA No works or races within three weeks could be
trouble. Three consecutive good finishes. Two
consecutive decreases in
speed rating.
ASIAN EYES Was closer to the lead in last.
PERSIAN HONEY (BRZ) Modest pace advantage. Long workout is almost as good
as an extra race. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
Huge class
raise will be hard.
HARD WOMAN Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
MRS. ROCHA Very impressive workouts.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 TALKIN TO MOM ROO 6-5
84 96 0.00
6 PEACE CHANT
7-2 87 93
2.30
1 KRUGER PARK
9-2 81 98
2.76
5 CALL ON CARSON
12-1 76 98
5.04
3 EL GATO MALO
30-1 74 88
6.94
Commentary
TALKIN TO MOM ROO Big back speed advantage. Three consecutive
good finishes.
PEACE CHANT Modest pace advantage. Modest speed advantage. Long
workout
is almost as good as an extra race. Four consecutive
improvements in
speed rating!!
KRUGER PARK Very impressive workouts. Bid but hung in last. Three
consecutive good finishes.
CALL ON CARSON Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and
this horse has it. Huge class drop should help. Two
consecutive
decreases in speed rating.
EL GATO MALO The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class drop should
help.
PN Horse Name Odds
Pace Speed BLs
8 RAILROAD
7-2 85 97
0.00
1 LOCKFORD
6-1 79 86
1.13
5 MAROON
7-1 82 92
1.45
9 FAST AND FURIOUS (FR) 7-1
76 85 1.46
3 KRIS SILVER
8-1 85 92
1.50
Commentary
RAILROAD Slight pace advantage. Three consecutive good
finishes.
LOCKFORD Long recent workout is a good sign.
MAROON Slight speed advantage.
FAST AND FURIOUS (FR) Long recent workout is a good sign.
KRIS SILVER Slight back speed advantage. A well worked out horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 LEMON
4-1 73 86
0.00
2 ELUSIVE PLEASURE 6-1
84 91
0.50
8 MR. ELROY
8-1 81 96
1.00
11 MR. INN ZONE
8-1 84 90
1.01
6 CAJUN CORREDOR
10-1 76 89
1.60
Commentary
LEMON Best speed at this distance and surface.
ELUSIVE PLEASURE Slight pace advantage. Three consecutive improvements in
speed rating!
MR. ELROY The recent 5F workout looks great.
MR. INN ZONE Class raise presents a challange.
CAJUN CORREDOR No works or races within three weeks could be trouble. Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 PRECIOUS KITTEN 5-2
90 90
0.00
7 VISIT (GB)
5-1 75 0
1.61
5 ROSINKA (IRE)
7-1 88 95
2.11
1 BLACK MAMBA (NZ) 7-1
83 85
2.14
8 ROSHANI
11-1 84 89
3.01
9 COCOA BEACH (CHI) 12-1
77 0 3.18
4 CRIMINOLOGIST
23-1 78 80
4.20
2 MAGICAL FANTASY 25-1
85 89 4.39
6 I CAN SEE
65-1 80 77
5.68
Commentary
PRECIOUS KITTEN Modest pace advantage. Bid but hung in last.
Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements
in speed rating.
VISIT (GB) Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good finishes.
Huge
class drop should help.
ROSINKA (IRE) Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
BLACK MAMBA (NZ) Modest speed advantage. The long workout makes me feel
good about this one. Three consecutive good finishes.
ROSHANI Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse
has it. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 CUT THE CHECK
3-2 76 85
0.00
10 MR. HOT STUFF
9-2 68 85
2.76
8 ACCLAMATION
6-1 71 84
3.26
1 NEW BAY
16-1 no starts
5.44
6 PAPA CLEM
17-1 73 88
5.65
Commentary
CUT THE CHECK Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed
advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
ACCLAMATION Long recent workout is a good sign.
PAPA CLEM The recent 5F workout looks great.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 GIO PONTI
3-1 81 87
0.00
5 MADEO
9-2 80 78
0.70
9 MUNY
9-1 81
97 1.86
1 DIXIE CHATTER
9-1 80 86
2.01
3 COWBOY CAL
9-1 88 88
2.01
2 COURT VISION
9-1 79 86
2.05
8 SAILOR'S CAP
14-1 78 75
2.83
4 ALBAHRI (FR)
22-1 44 0
3.57
6 MIDSHIPS
39-1 44 0
4.45
Commentary
GIO PONTI Modest speed advantage. Long recent workout is a
good sign. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
Bid but hung in
last. Three consecutive good finishes.
MADEO A well worked out horse. Huge class raise will be hard.
MUNY Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse
has it. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three
consecutive
good finishes. Huge class raise will be hard.
DIXIE CHATTER You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three
consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be
hard. Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating.
COWBOY CAL Huge pace advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the
workouts. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign.
Huge class raise
will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 PLAZA QUEEN
5-2 76 91
0.00
7 FLASH DANCE
6-1 72 79
2.03
5 SHELBYDELL
9-1 76 91
2.88
10 CATSALOT
10-1 64 80
3.37
12 BETTYBOOMBOOM
13-1 75 89
3.77
Commentary
PLAZA QUEEN Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. You
couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Three
consecutive good
finishes.
FLASH DANCE Speed improved in last outing.
SHELBYDELL You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts. Taxing
stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good
finishes.
Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop
should help. Two
consecutive decreases in speed rating.
CATSALOT Class drop should help.
BETTYBOOMBOOM Two moves in last race.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT HOLLYWOODPARK FOR SATURDAY
Introduction
Mike’s sophisticated computer program is certainly one of
the most advanced and complex when it comes to ranking horses in predicted
order of finish. It actually performs thousands of calculations for every
horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay, non-linear
functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what most
handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked order of finish, a fair odds
lines so you can compare the fair odds assigned by Mike’s computer program to
the actual odds, and a betting strategy.
BETTING STRATEGY
Mike’s updated betting strategy as of June, 2005 is to
use his top two horses
in the rolling Daily Doubles and Pick Threes. Use
his top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles and Pick Threes. Of course,
you can use his Best Plays
as possible singles or to use on extra tickets. His
exacta strategy is to use
his top two ranked horses in every race together and use
his third ranked
horse underneath…four exacta combinations in all.
His trifecta strategy
is to play only his best play races using his top two for
first and his top four
for second and third…a $12 investment…example: 1-2
w/ 1-2-3-4 w/ 1-2-3-4.
Don’t forget to look for big overlays in the closing odds
versus Mike’s computer
generated fair odds line that you are
getting…particularly horses that are
double overlays. Don’t hesitate to consider them even
if they are NOT ranked
in his top two.
EXPLANATIONS
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of
this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace
The pace rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Trackmaster pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is my
best estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the
horse's last four Trackmaster speed ratings. The average has different weights
for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is mybest estimate of
what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has
the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top
pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't
finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
_____________________________________________________
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES:
There will be races in which the order of finish is very
close. All horses in races within .50 of the top horse should be
considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track with any nice
overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 CONCERTO'S THUNDER 5-2
80 92 0.00
3 WHISKEY BENT
9-2 76 85
1.57
1 VOODOO'S RUN
9-2 74 88
1.60
2 JUDGE KENT
9-1 69 83
3.08
8 TEMPTING CHARM
11-1 77 90
3.60
Commentary
CONCERTO'S THUNDER Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back
speed advantage.
WHISKEY BENT Speed improved in last outing.
VOODOO'S RUN Was closer to the lead in last. Showed surprise early speed
in last. Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive
improvements in
speed rating.
JUDGE KENT Class drop should help.
TEMPTING CHARM Long recent workout is a good sign.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 GULA GOLD
5-2 83 85
0.00
1 BACHELORETTE ONE 7-2
85 91
0.62
7 KELADORA
4-1 78 88
1.04
6 PERSIAN EXPRESS 8-1
80 84
2.32
4 GRECIAN (ARG)
12-1 85 91
3.19
Commentary
GULA GOLD Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
BACHELORETTE ONE You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
KELADORA Three consecutive good finishes.
PERSIAN EXPRESS Modest speed advantage. Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
GRECIAN (ARG) Class drop should help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 FADO (BRZ)
3-1 78 86
0.00
2 BOULE D'OR (IRE) 7-2
82 92
0.33
4 OUTRAGEOUS LIMIT 9-2
84 89
0.76
7 RED ALERT
9-1 88 91
2.16
5 MOONLIT HABIT
10-1 80 88
2.50
Commentary
FADO (BRZ) Modest speed advantage. Long workout is almost as
good as an extra race. Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
BOULE D'OR (IRE) Slight back speed advantage. The recent 5F workout looks
great. Bid but hung in last. Three consecutive good
finishes. Three
consecutive decreases in speed rating!
OUTRAGEOUS LIMIT Speed improved in last outing.
RED ALERT Big pace advantage. Two consecutive improvements in speed
rating.
MOONLIT HABIT Three consecutive good finishes. Three consecutive
improvements in speed rating!
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 LADY LUMBERJACK 6-5
72 88
0.00
6 WHERE'S SCARLET 5-2
72 89
1.92
1 MISS DOLCE
9-1 no starts
4.97
3 ERMINE SLIPPERS 26-1
no starts 7.19
5 SONGINMYHEART
27-1 no starts 7.27
Commentary
LADY LUMBERJACK Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed
advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
WHERE'S SCARLET You couldn't ask for much more from the workouts.
MISS DOLCE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this
horse has it.
ERMINE SLIPPERS A well worked out horse.
SONGINMYHEART The long workout makes me feel good about this one.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 HYPE
5-2 77
80 0.00
1 BITTEL ROAD
3-1 81 85
0.53
7 BOURBON BAY 6-1
71 80
1.79
2 MR. ROD
7-1 82 89
2.08
4 BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) 22-1 56
0 4.34
6 INSURGENCE
22-1 70 79
4.41
8 LITURGICAL
38-1 80 83
5.13
5 MENSA HEAT
48-1 79 86
5.53
Commentary
HYPE Slight speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good
as an extra race. Three consecutive good finishes.
Huge class raise will
be hard. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
BITTEL ROAD Very impressive workouts. Was closer to the lead in last.
Huge class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements
in speed rating.
BOURBON BAY Three consecutive good finishes. Huge class raise will be
hard. Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
MR. ROD Slight pace advantage. Long workout is almost as good as an extra
race. Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have
an early speed
advantage. Huge class raise will be hard. Four
consecutive improvements
in speed rating!!
BATTLE OF HASTINGS (GB) No works or races within three weeks could be
trouble. Huge class raise will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 IMFOREAL
9-5 73 85
0.00
6 YODELADY O
2-1 70 85
0.31
8 MOONLIGHT TIZZY 8-1
76 86 3.37
2 CHALULA ONE
15-1 no starts 5.11
5 CATIFORNYA DREAMIN 29-1
no starts 6.20
Commentary
IMFOREAL Very impressive workouts.
YODELADY O Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. The recent 5F
workout
looks great. Was closer to the lead in last. Bid but
hung in last.
MOONLIGHT TIZZY Pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
CATIFORNYA DREAMIN Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and
this horse has it.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 HOIST THE SAIL
7-2 81 93
0.00
4 TAXI FLEET
4-1 76 90
0.39
2 DEVOTED MAGIC
6-1 79 95
1.10
3 KINGDOM COME (IRE) 9-1
84 94 1.82
5 STREET LIGHTS
10-1 76 91
2.09
Commentary
HOIST THE SAIL The recent 5F workout looks great.
TAXI FLEET Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
DEVOTED MAGIC The recent 5F workout looks great. Three consecutive good
finishes.
KINGDOM COME (IRE) I like the workouts.
STREET LIGHTS Long recent workout is a good sign. Huge class drop should
help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 CARRIE WITH A C 5-2
76 89
0.00
11 UNWORLDLY HEAT
4-1 77 92
0.96
5 MS TOOMSUBA
6-1 80 92
1.71
2 SUMMERTIME
9-1 75 87
2.60
1 SMALL BUT MIGHTY 10-1
72 89 3.00
Commentary
CARRIE WITH A C Modest speed advantage. Three consecutive
good finishes.
UNWORLDLY HEAT Long recent workout is a good sign.
MS TOOMSUBA Three consecutive good finishes. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
SUMMERTIME A well worked out horse.
SMALL BUT MIGHTY Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Showed
surprise early speed in last. Three consecutive good
finishes. Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
2 ONE UNION
4-1 96 103
0.00
3 MAJESTIC DIAMOND (NZ) 9-2
85 95 0.21
1 DELTA STORM
6-1 84 99
0.77
10 CALIFORNIA FLAG 8-1
98 106
1.09
8 JOE BRAVO (BRZ) 11-1
81 92 1.95
9 CARRILERO (ARG) 12-1
82 100 2.19
6 HURRY UP AUSTIN 15-1
76 87 2.48
4 RACKETEER
19-1 71 80
2.83
5 UNUSUAL SUSPECT 22-1
73 87 3.03
7 TOWZEE (NZ)
31-1 80 90
3.56
Commentary
ONE UNION Modest speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
MAJESTIC DIAMOND (NZ) Huge class raise will be hard.
DELTA STORM The recent 5F workout looks great. Huge class raise will be
hard.
CALIFORNIA FLAG Modest pace advantage. Slight back speed advantage.
Looks to have an early speed advantage. Huge class drop
should help.
JOE BRAVO (BRZ) Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
3 THREAT
6-5 77 89
0.00
13 SOLDIER BETTY
5-1 75 89
3.27
14 AKELLA
10-1 73 85
4.79
10 LOVE SONG MELLODY 13-1
71 85 5.22
6 BURNT
18-1 72 87
5.68
Commentary
THREAT Pace advantage. Speed advantage. Back speed
advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about this
one. Two moves
in last race. Three consecutive good finishes. Huge
class drop should
help.
SOLDIER BETTY Speed improved in last outing.
AKELLA Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this horse
has it. Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
LOVE SONG MELLODY Showed surprise early speed in last.
BURNT Three consecutive good finishes.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT HOLLYWOODPARK FOR FRIDAY
Introduction
Mike’s sophisticated computer program is certainly one of
the most advanced and complex when it comes to ranking horses in predicted
order of finish. It actually performs thousands of calculations for every
horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay, non-linear
functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what most
handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked order of finish, a fair odds lines so you can compare the fair odds assigned
by Mike’s computer program to the actual odds, and a betting strategy.
BETTING STRATEGY
Mike’s updated betting strategy as of June, 2005 is to
use his top two horses
in the rolling Daily
Doubles and Pick Threes. Use his top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles and
Pick Threes. Of course, you can use his Best Plays
as possible singles or to
use on extra tickets. His exacta strategy is to use
his top two ranked horses
in every race together and use his third ranked
horse underneath…four
exacta combinations in all. His trifecta
strategy
is to play only his best
play races using his top two for first and his top four
for second and third…a
$12 investment…example: 1-2 w/ 1-2-3-4 w/ 1-2-3-4.
Don’t forget to look for big overlays in the closing odds
versus Mike’s computer
generated fair odds line
that you are getting…particularly horses that are
double overlays.
Don’t hesitate to consider them even if they are NOT ranked
in his top two.
EXPLANATIONS
Proficiency This is a short report on how well my selections
perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of
this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds The chance the horse will win. This is a 100%
odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace
The pace rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Trackmaster pace ratings at the four furlong
point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is my
best estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the horse's last four Trackmaster
speed ratings. The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is mybest
estimate of what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has the highest speed rating, this
doesn't automatically make it the top pick. For example a horse with the
highest speed rating that hasn't finished better than 2nd in four years would
probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
_____________________________________________________
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES:
There will be races in which the order of finish is very
close. All horses in races within .50 of the top horse should be
considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track with any nice
overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 ZETTERBERG
3-1 71 86
0.00
3 CARSON'S COPPER 3-1
86 93
0.00
1 PROFESSNL COURTESY 7-2
68 84 0.38
2 SODA POP KID
7-1 73 86
1.76
6 MISTER FIPS (IRE) 10-1
82 92 2.56
Commentary
ZETTERBERG Slight back speed advantage. Showed surprise early
speed in last. CARSON'S COPPER Big pace advantage.Slight speed
advantage.Taxing
stretch drive in last, a good sign.Looks to have an early speed
advantage.
PROFESSNL COURTESY Long recent workout is a good sign.
SODA POP KID Three consecutive good finishes.
MISTER FIPS (IRE) You couldn't ask for much more from
the workouts.
PN Horse Name Odds
Pace Speed BLs
1 STAR REDEEMER
8-5 69 83
0.00
9 LEAVETHEGATEOPEN 5-2
74 89
0.93
4 BEAUTEOUS MAXIMUS 7-1
81 90 3.20
8 CRAZY WAGER
9-1 no starts
4.03
5 KORBAN
52-1 no starts
7.30
Commentary
STAR REDEEMER Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. LEAVETHEGATEOPEN Two consecutive improvements in speed
rating. BEAUTEOUS MAXIMUS Pace advantage.Was closer to the lead in last.
CRAZY WAGER The recent 5F workout looks great.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 SATELLITE
7-2 75 90
0.00
3 SAXOPHONE
4-1 81 88
0.48
1 KINGSBURG
9-2 73 88
0.70
4 MONARCHO POLO
7-1 71 88
1.45
7 BROOKER
7-1 75 88
1.49
Commentary
SATELLITE Slight speed advantage. Three consecutive
good
finishes.Looks to have an early
speed advantage. SAXOPHONE Big pace advantage. Long workout is
almost as good as an extra
race. Three consecutive good finishes.Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
KINGSBURG Speed improved in last outing.
MONARCHO POLO Modest back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more
from the workouts.
BROOKER Huge class drop should help.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 NIMA'S PAD
3-1 79 86
0.00
6 HEADACHE (FR)
4-1 75 81
0.64
1 BALLISTIC HEAT
4-1 73 86
0.77
3 SKIPPY DUE
5-1 79 85
1.11
5 SEVEN SECRETS
8-1 88 92
1.94
Commentary
NIMA'S PAD Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well
and this horse has it.
HEADACHE (FR) A well worked out horse. Huge
class drop should help. BALLISTIC HEAT Highest average purse value. SKIPPY DUE Modest speed advantage.Three consecutive good finishes. SEVEN SECRETS Huge pace advantage.Modest back speed advantage. The long
workout makes me feel good about this one. Looks to have an early speed
advantage.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 SUPERFECTA
5-2 77 89
0.00
6 YOU IS WHAT YOU IS 7-2
73 89 0.89
9 MICHAEL'S NOTES 6-1
82 93
1.98
3 LARDOG
9-1 73 88
2.71
5 TEXAS DEVIL
15-1 77
89 3.57
Commentary
SUPERFECTA Modest speed advantage. Taxing stretch drive
in
last, a good sign.
YOU IS WHAT YOU IS Class drop should help.
MICHAEL'S NOTES Big pace advantage. Modest back speed advantage. Long
workout is almost as good as an extra race. Looks to have an early speed
advantage. Huge class drop should help.
LARDOG Class drop should help. TEXAS DEVIL Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 EMMY DARLING
5-2 84 91
0.00
2 INTERNALLYFLAWLESS 9-2
74 82 1.64
8 HABAYA
9-2 79 80
1.70
3 ATKA
10-1 81 85
3.23
10 CENTURY PARK
13-1 78 85
3.81
5 PRETTY KATHERINE 21-1
77 91 4.56
1 DREAMALONG
26-1 76 82
4.89
7 KINESIOLOGY
38-1 77 84
5.47
9 ELOQUENTLY (GB) 47-1
56 0
5.91
4 PLATINUM STILETTO 304-1
74 76 8.28
12 MS. LIVELY
441-1 64 73
8.78
11 GRACE GRYDER
656-1 76 86
9.17
Commentary
EMMY DARLING Big pace advantage. Big speed advantage. Big
back speed advantage. Very impressive
workouts. Huge class drop should
help.
INTERNALLYFLAWLESS The recent 5F workout looks great. Taxing
stretch
drive in last, a good sign. Huge class raise will be
hard. HABAYA Highest earnings per start.
ATKA Huge class raise will be hard. Two consecutive
improvements in speed
rating. CENTURYPARK The recent 5F workout looks great.
Taxing stretch drive in
last, a good sign. Huge class raise will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 BUBSY
3-1 71 87
0.00
11 INDY OLMO
5-1 77 92
1.18
2 HOTSIE
6-1 76 91
1.59
8 YUKON BULL
6-1 76
91 1.63
3 RED JASPER
8-1 74 87
2.18
Commentary
BUBSY Speed advantage. Back speed advantage. INDY OLMO Pace advantage. Long workout is almost
as good as an extra race. HOTSIE Very impressive workouts. Bid but hung in
last.
YUKON BULL Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this
horse has it. Was
closer to the lead in last.
RED JASPER I like the workouts. Three consecutive improvements in speed
rating!
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
9 WHATSTHESCRIPT (IRE) 5-2
87 92 0.00
1 HYPERBARIC
3-1 86 91
0.36
6 REBELLION (GB)
7-1 84 93
2.12
3 FERNELEY (IRE)
14-1 85 92
3.46
8 PROUDINSKY (GER) 14-1
94 96 3.50
4 LORD ADMIRAL
22-1 90 93
4.11
10 FORMAL DECREE (GER) 23-1
85 80 4.24
7 MEDICI CODE (GB) 24-1
87 92 4.26
5 BECRUX (ITY)
66-1 81 87
5.61
2 GALANTAS
75-1 77 86
5.83
Commentary
WHATSTHESCRIPT (IRE) Modest speed advantage. Big back speed
advantage. Long recent workout is a good sign. Three consecutive good
finishes. Huge class drop should help.
HYPERBARIC Long recent workout is a good sign. Taxing
stretch drive in
last, a good sign.Three
consecutive good finishes.Looks to have an
early speed advantage.
REBELLION (GB) A well worked out horse. Huge
class drop should help.
Three consecutive improvements in speed rating!
FERNELEY (IRE) Huge class raise will be hard. PROUDINSKY (GER) Big pace advantage. Huge class
raise will be hard.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
1 SWIFT DEMAND
9-5 82 90
0.00
1 DRAFT CHOICE
4-1 78 88
1.76
8 MAJOR SMOKE
7-1 79 87
2.89
3 CAPE HATCHET
10-1 79
96 3.59
6 PACK YOUR BAGS
13-1 75 88
4.20
Commentary
SWIFT DEMAND Big speed advantage. Modest back speed
advantage. The long workout makes me feel good about
this one. Two
consecutive improvements in speed rating.
DRAFT CHOICE Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and this
horse has it. Three
consecutive good finishes.Looks to have an
early
speed advantage.Two consecutive
improvements in speed rating. MAJOR SMOKE Two consecutive improvements in speed rating. CAPEHATCHET Long recent workout is a good sign.
PACK YOUR BAGS Showed surprise early speed in last.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 RAZOR CUT
7-2 81 96
0.00
12 MIDNIGHT CORREDOR 4-1
78 90
0.44
9 PRESIDENT ELECT (IRE) 5-1
75 92 0.73
10 WARREN'S YODLER
8-1 72
87 1.79
4 SENOR AFORTUNADO 10-1
69 84 2.33
Commentary
RAZOR CUT Pace advantage. A well worked out horse. MIDNIGHT CORREDOR Back speed advantage.
Three consecutive decreases in
speed rating!
PRESIDENT ELECT (IRE) Speed advantage. Showed surprise early speed in
last. WARREN'S YODLER The recent 5F workout looks
great. Looks to have an early
speed advantage.
SENOR AFORTUNADO Workouts that are five furlongs or longer bode well and
this horse has it.
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
MICHAEL NUNAMAKER’S FULL
CARD COMPUTERIZED ANALYSIS
AT HOLLYWOODPARK FOR THURSDAY
Introduction
Mike’s sophisticated computer program is certainly one of
the most advanced and complex when it comes to ranking horses in predicted
order of finish. It actually performs thousands of calculations for every
horse in every race involving regression, exponential time decay, non-linear
functions, direct empirically derived mapping and stuff way beyond what most
handicappers can conceive of.
The end result is a ranked order of finish, a fair odds
lines so you can compare the fair odds assigned by Mike’s computer program to
the actual odds, and a betting strategy.
BETTING STRATEGY
Mike’s updated betting strategy as of June, 2005 is to
use his top two horses
in the rolling Daily Doubles and Pick Threes. Use
his top two horses in the
rolling Daily Doubles and Pick Threes. Of course,
you can use his Best Plays
as possible singles or to use on extra tickets. His
exacta strategy is to use
his top two ranked horses in every race together and use
his third ranked
horse underneath…four exacta combinations in all.
His trifecta strategy
is to play only his best play races using his top two for
first and his top four
for second and third…a $12 investment…example: 1-2
w/ 1-2-3-4 w/ 1-2-3-4.
Don’t forget to look for big overlays in the closing odds
versus Mike’s computer
generated fair odds line that you are
getting…particularly horses that are
double overlays. Don’t hesitate to consider them
even if they are NOT ranked
in his top two.
EXPLANATIONS
Proficiency
This is a short report on how well my selections perform
on this type of race. Items reported are as follows.
Samples: The number of races of
this specific type that
have been rated using my methods.
W%: The percentage of races where my top selection won
the race.
Net: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
of this race type. For comparison, the NET on random horses is $1.54
and the NET on favorites is $1.64.
Net4+: The return on $2.00 wagers on all top selections
going off at odds of 4-1 or higher.
Program Number
This is the horse's program number. ALWAYS check
this number with the official program before placing a wager!
There is nothing more frustrating than to pick the right
horse but bet on the wrong number.
Horse Name
This is nothing more than the name of the horse.
Odds
The chance the horse will win. This is a 100% odds line.
That means it does not deflate the odds because of track take.
So if a horse goes off at my listed odds or higher, you
should have a good bet.
Pace
The pace rating is a complex average of the horse's last
four Trackmaster pace ratings at the four furlong point of each race.
The average has different weights for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is my
best estimate of what pace rating the horse will earn today.
Speed
Similar to the pace rating, the speed rating is a complex average of the
horse's last four Trackmaster speed ratings. The average has different weights
for different surfaces,
tracks, distances, and several other factors. It is mybest estimate of
what speed rating the horse will earn today. However, Just because a horse has
the highest speed rating, this doesn't automatically make it the top
pick. For example a horse with the highest speed rating that hasn't
finished better than 2nd in four years would probably not be a top selection.
Beaten Lengths
Beaten Lengths are my prediction of how many lengths
the horse will finish behind the winner.
Of course, this means that the horse predicted to win will
always have a beaten length rating of zero. When generating
the odds line, the number of starts a horse has in considered.
The smaller the number of starts, the less certainty we can
have in the prediction and the higher the odds we must accept
to have a fair wager. This leads occasionally to situations
where a horse predicted to win will have higher fair odds
than the horse predicted to come in second. This only
happens when the horse predicted to win has fewer starts
than the horse predicted to come in second.
_____________________________________________________
PREDICTED CLOSE FINISHES:
There will be races in which the order of finish is very
close. All horses in races within .50 of the top horse should be
considered based on fair odds vs. actual odds at the track with any nice
overlay a logical play in place of or in addition to Mike’s top horse.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
4 ORO BLANCO
6-5 77 85
0.00
3 KOULOURA (IRE)
5-1 46 0
3.47
1 WADDUP G
6-1 68 71
3.77
2 ELEGANT MISS
8-1 no starts
4.25
5 THERE GOES GEE GEE 14-1
78 87 5.53
Commentary
ORO BLANCO Back speed advantage. Huge class drop should help.
KOULOURA (IRE) Speed advantage. No works or races within three weeks
could be trouble. Huge class raise will be hard.
THERE GOES GEE GEE Pace advantage. Looks to have an early speed
advantage.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
5 MOTU NUI
5-2 80 86
0.00
2 WINNINGDANCER
3-1 75 87
0.62
8 CRAZY TRICIA
5-1 74 87
1.51
1 SARAH'S MELODY
10-1 70 78
3.09
4 OCTOBERFEST
12-1 71 78
3.50
Commentary
MOTU NUI Big pace advantage. Big back speed advantage. Huge
class drop should help. Two consecutive improvements in
speed rating.
WINNINGDANCER Highest earnings per start.
CRAZY TRICIA Bid but hung in last.
SARAH'S MELODY Speed improved in last outing.
OCTOBERFEST Two consecutive decreases in speed rating.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
6 PLAN FOR FUN
5-2 77 77
0.00
2 SILVER VISTA
5-2 77 87
0.42
1 LENDELL (BRZ)
4-1 74 91
1.30
7 GLIMMERING PETE 7-1
76 79
2.17
5 NORWAY HOUSE
40-1 73 79
5.21
Commentary
PLAN FOR FUN Slight pace advantage. Long recent workout is a
good sign.
SILVER VISTA Big back speed advantage. You couldn't ask for much more
from the workouts.
LENDELL (BRZ) Highest earnings per start.
GLIMMERING PETE Slight speed advantage. Long workout is almost as good as
an extra race. NORWAY HOUSE Speed improved in last
outing.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs 5 CATENIA PLACE
4-1 69 83
0.00
10 SIBERIAN TANGO
9-2 71 85
0.17
3 POKERMOM
6-1 71 84
0.96
2 IT'S PARTYTIME
7-1 72 87
1.13
4 SUGAREE GOLD 8-1 76
89 1.43
Commentary
CATENIA PLACE Speed
advantage. Back speed advantage.
SIBERIAN TANGO Highest earnings per start.
IT'S PARTYTIME Huge class drop should help.
SUGAREE GOLD Pace advantage. You couldn't ask for much more from the
workouts. Looks to have an early speed advantage.
PN Horse Name
Odds Pace Speed BLs
7 DADSALITTLEUNUSUAL 7-2
78 88 0.00
5 PARKO (FR)
7-2 81 86
0.11
8 VICTORIAN PRINCE (IRE) 7-1
92 73 1.36
2 TRATO
8-1 71 74
1.57
1 LIGHTNING HIT (IRE) 10-1
84 89 1.96
Commentary
DADSALITTLEUNUSUAL Workouts that are five furlongs or longer
bode well and this horse has it.
PARKO (FR) Modest speed advantage. Huge back speed advantage. A
well
worked out horse. Taxing stretch drive in last, a good
sign. Bid but
hung in last. Showed surprise early speed in last. Three
consecutive
good finishes.
VICTORIAN PRINCE (IRE) Huge pace advantage. The long workout makes me
feel good about this one. Looks to have an early speed
advantage.
TRATO Taxing stretch drive in last, a good sign. Three consecutive good
finishes. Four consecutive improvements in speed rating!!
LIGHTNING HIT (IRE) Two consecutive improvements in speed rating.
