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Handicappers Bob Selvin and Jeff Siegel, who team up every racing day with a full card telephone seminar at the current Southern California track, post their selections from yesterday’s races for your perusal. If we’re hot, you’ll know it and if we’re not, well, you’ll know that too. Judge for yourself if this is the kind of information you’d like to have before going to the races. For further information on the Selvin/Siegel telephone seminar, click here.
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Yesterday | 2 Days Ago | 3 Days Ago | 4 Days Ago | 5 Days Ago BOB SELVIN at HOLLYWOOD PARK for WEDNESDAY
COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.
PASSING RACES: When you see “PASS or” first, my suggestion is to PASS the race because I feel that race is either boring, valueless, is too complicated or has too many question marks. The play is up to you. When I suggest a play first and then indicate or PASS, my suggestion is to lean toward playing, but I'm obviously not crazy about or very interested in that race and it can easily be passed.
BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.
PICK THREE’S or PICK FOUR: I also do not play the Pick Three's or Pick Four’s randomly, but judiciously. Sometimes I don't play them at all. I don’t suggest these plays just so I can claim that I hit one the next day.
TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.
MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS TO GET THE MOST OUT OF MY SEMINAR: Whenever possible and/or when time permits, I will offer my own FAIR BETTING ODDS on my main contenders in a race. This game is based on VALUE. Comparing the actual track odds to my fair odds and deciding on a play means SOME JUDGMENT ON YOUR PART IS REQUIRED !! A winning player needs to be flexible. OFTEN my top choice(s) could be overbet well below my fair odds and my secondary contenders then could offer much better value. Don’t hesitate to play a nice overlay or PASS races when my choices are being overbet! (Unfortunately, any LATE SCRATCHES of contenders within a given race will make my fair odds INACCURATE.) Always remember… “if you don’t get it, don’t bet it.”
*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!
ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.
ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.
TURFDAY.COM STATS AND ANGLES: I frequently incorporate information/stats in my handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took years to complete and is now open for subscribers ($75 per month for a 24-hour per day unlimited access). Every single racetrack in the country is covered the same way. Every trainer, every jockey, every track-jockey combination, every position position at every distance at every track broken down by field size, every pace scenario, etc. And there is so much more than that! And the site is designed PURPOSELY to be VERY, very user friendly! The database dates back to Jan. 1, 1995 and is updated daily by Equibase. Take a look at it when you have the time and be sure to take the FREE TOUR offered at the site. TURFDAY.COM is a strategic partner of Equibase and Youbet.com. “If you’re a serious player or simulcast player, this site is an absolute treasure trove of information,”. . .Andy Beyer.
WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds.
RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.
No comments for today. Handicapping was done all the same way as always.
1st-- 5 STORMIN STORY on top, exacta box 3-5, 5-3
2nd-- (BEST PLAY) 3 MARRY ME DOC & 5 JAMES PRIOR co-top choices; exactas 3-1, 3-5, 5-1, 5-3
3rd-- 1 PROUD GARRISON on top, exactas 1-4, 1-5
4th-- PASS
Note: I realize that you are paying for this seminar to get educated selections. However, I can’t control how the public bets them. And the crowd in So. Calif. loves to pound and overbet favorites. Any selections that I have made that are bet below my fair odds more than two ticks should be NEGATED in favor of any 25% or higher overlays on my other contenders that I have assigned fair odds to. Or you may consider betting my top selection(s) and/or any 25% overlays. Pay attention. The crowd often makes mistakes!
5th-- 1 SEVEN STEPS & 7 STATELY APPEAL co-top choices; exactas 2-3, 2-7, 2-8, 7-2, 7-3, 7-8
SEVENS STEPS has run a well beaten LAST four times in a row and yet Bejarano sees fit to ride.
6th-- 5 WILD APART on top, exactas 5-2, 5-3, 5-10
7th-- Exactas 2-5, 2-7, 7-2, 7-5 or PASS
8th-- (BEST PLAY) 5 YES HE’S A PISTOL on top, no exactas
BOB SELVIN at
COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.
PASSING RACES: When you see “PASS or” first, my suggestion is to PASS the race because I feel that race is either boring, valueless, is too complicated or has too many question marks. The play is up to you. When I suggest a play first and then indicate or PASS, my suggestion is to lean toward playing, but I'm obviously not crazy about or very interested in that race and it can easily be passed.
BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.
PICK THREE’S or PICK FOUR: I also do not play the Pick Three's or Pick Four’s randomly, but judiciously. Sometimes I don't play them at all. I don’t suggest these plays just so I can claim that I hit one the next day.
TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.
MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.
IMPORTANT INSTRUCTIONS TO GET THE MOST OUT OF MY SEMINAR: Whenever possible and/or when time permits, I will offer my own FAIR BETTING ODDS on my main contenders in a race. This game is based on VALUE. Comparing the actual track odds to my fair odds and deciding on a play means SOME JUDGMENT ON YOUR PART IS REQUIRED !! A winning player needs to be flexible. OFTEN my top choice(s) could be overbet well below my fair odds and my secondary contenders then could offer much better value. Don’t hesitate to play a nice overlay or PASS races when my choices are being overbet! (Unfortunately, any LATE SCRATCHES of contenders within a given race will make my fair odds INACCURATE.) Always remember… “if you don’t get it, don’t bet it.”
*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!
ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.
ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.
TURFDAY.COM STATS AND
ANGLES: I frequently incorporate information/stats in my
handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took years to complete and is now open for
subscribers ($75 per month for a 24-hour per day unlimited access).
Every single racetrack in the country is
covered the same way. Every trainer, every jockey,
every track-jockey combination, every position position
at every distance at every track broken down by field size, every pace
scenario, etc. And there is so much more than that! And the site is
designed PURPOSELY to be VERY, very user friendly! The database dates
back to
WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds.
RACES THAT HAVE A SHADED BACKGROUND: These are the races of most interest and hopefully present the best betting value on this particular card today. The others are, well, just races.
(3rd)
5-6 Best Play exacta paid $43.20; (7th)
1st-- Solid exacta box 2-10, 10-2
Granted, this is no great revelation using what will likely be the first three odds choices. Also, my fair odds lined up very closely to the morning line, rarely a sign of a windfall profit race, but this exacta box looks solid. JUSTDONTCALLMEJERI made an expected move forward in his second start and wasn’t beaten badly in a par effort. A repeat of that for Team Mitchell-Bejarano makes him the one to beat. TIFFANYSPRINGSROAD has had two very tough trips back-to-back and is first off the claim for Spawr. He’s a big fit at this level, especially the way Spawr’s horses have been running.
2nd-- PASS or exacta box 1-7, 7-1 for the diehards.
Unfortunately my fair odds lined up closely to the morning line, rarely a positive sign for windfall profits. Hard knocking POCOSIN’S GAME BOY looks ultra tough on or near the lead. RED ARROW is a promising Aussie import with a sharp work on Nov. 3 under his belt (grade B+) and looks like a very live item with Garrett Gomez aboard for the debut. These two are the obvious favorites, so it looks like chalk-chalk and not very inspiring. Inclined to stay out of this one and let the lemmings have their way.
3rd— (BEST PLAY) 6 ASIAN EYES & 7 MAMA LULA co-top choices; solid exactas top and reverse 6-1, 6-5, 6-7.
Except for her last race which was coming only 12 days after shipping up north and back, ASIAN EYES has consistently looked at better company this past year and held her own and likes this track. Sharp trainer Peter Miller puts the blinkers on today perhaps to get involved a little earlier in the race. As an example, you can see she beat Summertime here last July and that one got beat a nose by tough Carrie With AC yesterday. PERSIAN HONEY could very well be the lone speed, but she just won for $8,000 and now moves up to $20,000. Five of the seven fillies she beat for $8,000 last out on Nov. 2 came back and were totally dusted and ran off the board. At 12/1 on the program, ASIAN EYES looks like a ripe gamble. MRS. ROCHA is first off the claim for Ellis, who has very good stats with winning off 45+day layoffs. MAMA LULA is a true pro, the obvious favorite and one to beat. Because of the very generous morning line odds compared to my fair odds, I’m using ASIAN EYES as my exacta key.
4th-- 3 EL GATO MALO on top or PASS.
I didn’t like the fair odds line I came up with for
this race, so no fair odds. This race at least looks Hollywood Park
racing secretary Marty Panza wrote this race for comebacker EL GATO MALO as a prep for the Malibu at Santa
Anita. Note the “or” in the conditions of the race. EL GATO MALO
wouldn’t be eligible except for “or which have not won a race since
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