| Bob Selvin's Best Plays Only |
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Handicappers Bob Selvin and Jeff Siegel, who team up every racing day with a full card telephone seminar at the current Southern California track, post their selections from yesterday’s races for your perusal. If we’re hot, you’ll know it and if we’re not, well, you’ll know that too. Judge for yourself if this is the kind of information you’d like to have before going to the races. For further information on the Selvin/Siegel telephone seminar, click here.
The best plays of Bob Selvin with Jeff Siegel (2 for the price of 1), Steve Pollack, and Michael Nunamaker's full card analysis are also available over the phone for $12.95 at (900) 289-1295 or (800) 326-8477 using Visa or Mastercard.
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Yesterday | 2 Days Ago | 3 Days Ago | 4 Days Ago | 5 Days Ago BOB SELVIN’s
BEST PLAYS at
COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.
BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.
TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.
MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.
*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!
ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.
ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.
TURFDAY.COM STATS
AND ANGLES: I frequently incorporate information/stats in
my handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took
years to complete and is now open for subscribers ($75 per month for a 24-hour
per day unlimited access). Every single racetrack in the country is
covered the same way. Every trainer, every jockey,
every track-jockey combination, every position position
at every distance at every track broken down by field size, every pace
scenario, etc. And there is so much more than that! And the site is
designed PURPOSELY to be VERY, very user friendly! The database dates
back to
WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds. 2nd-- (BEST PLAY) 3 MARRY ME DOC & 5
JAMES PRIOR co-top choices; exactas 3-1, 3-5, 5-1, 5-3
8th-- (BEST PLAY) 5 YES HE’S A PISTOL on top, no
exactas
BOB SELVIN’s
BEST PLAYS at
COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.
BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.
TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.
MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.
*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!
ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.
ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.
TURFDAY.COM STATS
AND ANGLES: I frequently incorporate information/stats in
my handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took
years to complete and is now open for subscribers ($75 per month for a 24-hour per
day unlimited access). Every single racetrack in the country is
covered the same way. Every trainer, every jockey,
every track-jockey combination, every position position
at every distance at every track broken down by field size, every pace scenario,
etc. And there is so much more than that! And the site is designed
PURPOSELY to be VERY, very user friendly! The database dates back to
WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds. (3rd) 5-6 Best Play exacta paid $43.20. 3rd— (BEST PLAY) 6 ASIAN EYES &
7 MAMA LULA co-top choices; solid
exactas top and reverse 6-1, 6-5, 6-7.
Except for her last race which was coming only 12 days after shipping up
north and back, ASIAN EYES has consistently looked at better company this past
year and held her own and likes this track.
Sharp trainer Peter Miller puts the blinkers on today perhaps to get
involved a little earlier in the race. As an example, you can see she beat Summertime here last July and that one got beat a nose by
tough Carrie With AC yesterday. PERSIAN
HONEY could very well be the lone speed, but she just won for $8,000 and now
moves up to $20,000. Five of the seven
fillies she beat for $8,000 last out on Nov. 2 came back and were totally
dusted and ran off the board. At 12/1
on the program, ASIAN EYES looks like a ripe gamble. MRS. ROCHA is first off the claim for Ellis,
who has very good stats with winning off 45+day layoffs. MAMA LULA is a true pro, the obvious favorite
and one to beat. Because of the very
generous morning line odds compared to my fair odds, I’m using ASIAN EYES as my
exacta key.
8th— (BEST PLAY) 10 MR. HOT STUFF
& 12 DEFENSE KING co-top choices; strong exacta box I’m looking for legit favorite Cut the Check to regress coming back quickly in short rest
(just 15 days) off a tough race after a layoff.
That opens the race up for three second starters, PAPA CLEM (blinkers on),
MR. HOT STUFF (blinkers on) and DEFENSE KING.
PAPA CLEM worked sharply out of his debut and figures to make a big
forward move. MR. HOT STUFF ran much better than the line looks and finished
full of run and the 6 ½ furlongs should help.
DEFENSE KING was simply given a race in his debut and has trained
brilliantly out of it. Trainer Paddy
Gallagher won a race the other day with Tokay who had the exact same
pattern. Good betting race.
BOB SELVIN’s
BEST PLAYS at
COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.
BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.
TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.
MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.
*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!
ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.
ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.
TURFDAY.COM STATS
AND ANGLES: I frequently incorporate information/stats in
my handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took
years to complete and is now open for subscribers ($75 per month for a 24-hour
per day unlimited access). Every single racetrack in the country
is covered the same way. Every trainer, every jockey,
every track-jockey combination, every position position
at every distance at every track broken down by field size, every pace
scenario, etc. And there is so much more than that! And the site is
designed PURPOSELY to be VERY, very user friendly! The database dates
back to
WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds. (8th)
Best Play Carrie With A C paid $5.40, 9-2 exacta I said to play extra ticket on
paid $24.20 with 9-2-5 trifecta paying $257 ($51.40 x
5). 8th—
(BEST PLAY) 9 CARRIE WITH A C on top, solid exacta box The idea here
isn’t necessarily to pick the winner….we can all see the ultra-consistent
CARRIE WITH A C is unquestionably the one to beat. The idea is to mate
with two exacta/trifecta partners and those two are
SUMMERTIME and LOVEHI. SUMMERTIME, coming off a short break, finished
with purpose to be second despite rallying against slow early fractions.
She flunked her route tests back east, so Mullins apparently realized she’s a
better late-running sprinter and she gets 7 furlongs to work with. LOVEHI
has done nothing in the morning
training up to this to indicate that she’s ready. However, whether she’s working indifferently or not, check out
her consistent form and win over the synthetic Cushion Track at this distance
last fall. She’s got tactical speed to be well placed and should start at
a big price.
BEST PLAY DAILY DOUBLE (races 8 & 9) 2-9-10 to 2-9-10 criss
cross; extra tickets 9-2, 9-9, 9-10 9th—
(BEST PLAY) 2 ONE The copy I
wrote for this race became incorrect once three horses scratched, including
Majestic Diamond, and changes the complexion of the race and takes away some of
the value. My fair odds line will be inaccurate for this
race.
And I omitted the trifecta play that I originally intended because the
field is now down to seven horses.
BOB SELVIN’s
BEST PLAYS at
COMMENTS: All numbers shown are official program numbers. Exotic plays are based on $2 wagers except for trifectas which are designated. Morning line and projected odds are definitely considered in my handicapping.
BEST PLAYS: Whenever possible and determined by the card, my Best Plays are hopefully NOT the most logical, high percentage races, but those that offer the best betting value.
TOP CHOICES, CO-TOP CHOICES or RACES with NO TOP CHOICES: Top choices or co-top choices are win bets at fair odds or higher. If there are any scratches, you have to project a shorter price on one or both. No top choice means I feel an exacta play is more worthwhile. However, that shouldn’t stop you from win betting if any overlays develop in the betting even if I don’t have a top choice.
MORNING LINE UNDERLAYS: These are horses at 4/1 or less on the morning line who I think are underlays on the morning line and thus, do not represent good value in my estimation. Doesn’t mean they can’t win, but as I’ve tracked them, about 80% are third or worse. Identifying these underlays (bet againsts?) should be very helpful in your wagering strategy, especially trying to beat them in the exacta. Obviously, a late scratch of another horse in the same race under 4/1 on the morning line could change the complexion of the race and can negate the status of an MLU as an MLU.
*** There are many cases when my top pick gets overbet (well below my fair odds) OR sometimes I don’t have a top pick (and just recommend exactas). In that case, you should wisely DISREGARD my overbet top pick or co-top choice and look for an overlay. If I don’t make a pick in the race and just offer exactas, my top horses I’m using in the exacta are MANDATORY WIN BETS if they are 20% higher than my fair odds. Mandatory win bet on any horses that are about 50% (double) higher than my listed fair odds if I set odds for them in the race, even if they are NOT among my top picks. And there is nothing wrong with betting two horses to win in the same race. There are MANY examples of this that commonly happen, so pay attention!
ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK THE COPY I WRITE WITH NUMBERS AGAINST PROGRAM NUMBERS: *** It is your job and VERY IMPORTANT to ALWAYS DOUBLE CHECK my numbers below against the official program numbers. I can’t stress that enough. Occasional inadvertent mistakes or typos can and do occur.
ALWAYS LET FAIR ODDS BE YOUR GUIDE: However, keep in mind that late scratches within the body of a race after you access this report can DRAMATICALLY change the complexion of the race AND also negate my fair odds, in particular if one of my contenders is scratched.
TURFDAY.COM STATS AND
ANGLES: I frequently incorporate information/stats in my
handicapping from my website www.turfday.com. The site took years
to complete and is now open for subscribers ($75 per month for a 24-hour per
day unlimited access). Every single racetrack in the country is
covered the same way. Every trainer, every jockey,
every track-jockey combination, every position position
at every distance at every track broken down by field size, every pace
scenario, etc. And there is so much more than that! And the site is
designed PURPOSELY to be VERY, very user friendly! The database dates
back to
WHAT ARE FAIR ODDS ?: Fair odds mean exactly that. You are getting the odds you should be getting if you decide to bet. Below fair odds and the play is less worthwhile and less valuable. Any horse above fair odds should be looked at closely, especially if they are 10-20% higher. When they get 25% higher, I’m calling them very good bets (VGB) as a very generous overlay. ALL horses, even those I don’t select, should be considered as a WIN play at 25% above fair odds by comparing the actual odds on the board to the odds on the far right column. It’s that easy. My selections aren’t as relevant when they go below fair odds and there is a very good bet contender or contenders in the race. When the crowd overbets a favorite, I want to be on top of the overlays that often creates. Unfortunately, key scratches can negate my fair odds. (7th)
Co-top Best Play Yukon Bull paid $11.00 with co-top Bubsy
finishing second completing another 1-2 BP exacta that
paid $51.20. 7th—
(BEST PLAY) 4
BUBSY & 8 YUKON BULL co-top choices; exacta box BUBSY attended a fast pace and hung on
well considering. This is only his
second try at this level and he should be positioned in the garden spot. YUKON BULL has good early speed and worked
extra sharply on Nov. 23 across town leading up to this.
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